Peter Chen

Preface#

Background#

This is the 整理 of the sharing manuscript from the first offline book club of this year, held on March 19th, five months ago. However, the 整理 of the content was delayed until now, haha. Initially, I didn't plan to 整理 it into a manuscript, but I found that the content of this book could still be recalled often in recent times, proving that there is still value in 整理 ing it, so I 整理 ed it out to share with everyone.

The overall content arrangement of the book is not particularly attractive, and there are no illustrations throughout the text, making it somewhat difficult to read. The examples are all from abroad, which makes it a bit less relatable. However, I once listened to Teacher Fan talk about it on Fan Deng Reading and felt that it was somewhat interesting, so I chose this book as the theme for the offline book club.

On one hand, I have recently gained some awareness of the life topic of understanding others and understanding oneself over the past two years and found it interesting, wanting to see others' perspectives. On the other hand, since it was my first time organizing an offline book club, from a research perspective, it is best to choose books that resonate with everyone’s lives, such as those related to psychology and sociology, like intimate relationships, nonviolent communication, the art of love, and being involved, which would also facilitate more intellectual collisions.

Book Introduction#

Let me introduce this book to everyone.

I wonder what your first impression is when you hear the title of this book. My impression is that it is very similar to the metaphor of being ordinary yet confident; it’s like, how can someone so ordinary be so confident? This name is obviously a derogatory term, and it feels like the author is a bit too dismissive👀. Is it a book about how to confront others? Haha.

But in reality, as the original title of the author’s book suggests: Self-Insight: roadblocks and detours on the path to knowing thyself

Obstacles and detours on the road to understanding oneself.

So, translating this big pot, the content of this book seems to be a weapon for attacking others, but in fact, it is a mirror for examining and analyzing oneself.

After introducing the book's title, let's take a look at the author.

The author is David Dunning, who was listed as one of the top 2% most cited psychologists by Stanford University in 2021. He, along with Kruger, proposed the very famous concept of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which will also be one of the key points of our sharing today.

Main Content#

Before we start, everyone can think about the following two questions in their hearts:

• For friends who can drive: Where do you think your driving skill ranks among all drivers?
• For friends who cannot drive: Where do you think your athletic ability ranks among all your peers?

The reason for asking this question is to resonate with the theme of today’s book, which will be revealed in the later content👀.

Why are the most ignorant people the most confident?#

Knowing others is intelligence; knowing oneself is true wisdom. — Laozi, Tao Te Ching

Laozi believes that those who can read others' words and expressions, understand their talents, personalities, and virtues or vices, can be considered wise; however, only those who can deeply introspect and understand themselves are truly virtuous.

Illusory Superiority#

Let me give a few examples from life: when buying stocks, one might think their stock-picking ability is better than others; when playing the lottery, one might believe they have a better chance of winning than what the store offers. These are common phenomena of self overestimation, which do not reflect our true level.

So why does this incorrect perception of one's true abilities occur? Here, the author mentions a concept called illusory superiority.

We often see elderly people around us exhibiting this symptom. We buy them hearing aids and say, "You can't hear, you need to wear a hearing aid," but they often resist wearing them. The elderly might say, "I can hear," and you can only helplessly respond, "You see, you just didn't hear that last sentence." The elderly would reply, "That's because you spoke too fast; if you said it slower, I could hear it."

This is actually their unwillingness to admit that their hearing is failing. This lack of self-awareness is a manifestation of illusory superiority, reflected in our complete unawareness of self-perception.

The author and his students discovered and named this phenomenon, which is the Dunning-Kruger effect, also known as The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Dunning-Kruger Effect#

Introduction#

The lower an individual's skill or knowledge level in a certain area, the more difficult it is for them to accurately assess their ability in that area.

• This leads them to potentially overestimate their abilities, while in reality, they may not excel in that field.
• Conversely, those with actual skills or knowledge tend to be more humble and can more accurately assess their abilities.

This topic has been discussed in the reading group before: If you feel something is very simple, then either you know nothing about it, or you are an industry expert.

Reasons#

Why does the Dunning-Kruger effect occur? The author points out that the reason is our metacognition has flaws.

So what is cognition, and what is metacognition?

• Cognition is what we understand; for example, the skills and knowledge required in the investment field are called cognition.
• What about metacognition? Our understanding of the level of our cognition is called metacognition; for instance, my evaluation of my own investment level is a form of metacognition.

These are two different concepts.

Why does metacognition have flaws? Because cognition is the foundation of metacognition, and cognition requires continuous learning and improvement. When you cannot do something, you also find it difficult to assess your performance.

The author provides several examples:

• A doctor must accurately evaluate whether they have made the best diagnosis for a patient, which requires them to be familiar with the symptoms of that disease.
• A language teacher must provide effective advice to students, which requires them to be proficient in language norms.
• A tax accountant must reasonably evaluate their advice to clients, which requires them to be knowledgeable about tax laws.

If the professional knowledge of the above individuals is lacking or insufficient, they will be unable to correctly evaluate their own actions.

Thinking about it carefully, this is a terrifying cycle. Insufficient cognition leads to flaws in metacognition, and flaws in metacognition lead to the belief that there is no need to improve cognition.

This is the author's explanation of why we experience the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Why do our cognitive processes go wrong?#

Incomplete Metacognitive Processes#

• Where is the capital of Australia?
  (Sydney / Canberra)
• Where is the capital of Liaoning Province?
  (Shenyang / Dalian)
• Which country produces the most olive oil?
  (Italy / Spain)

Did everyone answer these questions correctly? If not, let’s see what the author says.

Here, the author introduces the first reason for errors: incomplete metacognitive processes.

How is it incomplete? The author elaborates on four aspects of our incomplete metacognitive scenarios.

• First, the reason we have metacognitive issues is that our knowledge is not wrong, but it may be incomplete.
  • I recall Teacher Fan mentioning his own example; he has been to Italy and felt there were too many olive trees, so it must be Italy. However, he has never been to Spain and does not know that Spain actually has even more olive trees.
  • This reminds me of a metaphor from Teacher Qi; in the investment field, this problem is also quite easy to occur. If you only understand a little about investing, it’s better not to understand at all; this aligns with the author's point that incomplete knowledge can lead to completely opposite results.
• Second, our knowledge may be generally correct but have flaws.
  • For example, it’s easy to misremember the capital of Australia, possibly because the Sydney Opera House is more frequently featured🤔.
• Third, much knowledge is pseudo-correlated; they have no relationship, but our subconscious tends to make arbitrary comparisons.
  • For instance, there is a diagram in the book asking how a small ball will move after cutting a rope.
    • Respondents who chose A believe: it will continue to spin because there is no rope between the Earth and the Sun.

• Fourth, confirmation bias; humans have a tendency to argue for any viewpoint.
  • This is also why mysticism can exist for a long time, without any derogatory intent. I personally enjoy studying non-natural mysticism, and I want to mention that we need to view this psychology objectively to avoid being manipulated by those with ulterior motives👀.
  • People are more focused on confirming information rather than disproving hypotheses.
    • There is a saying; see if it’s accurate: You are a person who appears very happy on the surface but is actually very melancholic inside. Sometimes you are very decisive, and other times you hesitate for a long time. Sometimes you are very enthusiastic, and other times you are very indifferent; sometimes you are very casual, and other times you are very determined and won’t give up on something.
      • I believe everyone would find this very accurate, right? This is called the Barnum Effect.
      • In fact, everyone experiences such emotional fluctuations; it’s not surprising🤣.
    • Being overly confident in one’s choices.
      • Only seeing evidence that is beneficial to oneself.
    • First impressions become very important; reversing a first impression is very difficult.
      • He is a good person; everything he does is right.
      • He is a bad person; everything he does is malicious.

Experience and Feedback May Not Lead to Optimal Solutions#

I am a loyal fan of Liu Cixin, and when the author mentioned this point, I immediately thought of these two short stories from "The Three-Body Problem."

• The Turkey and the Farmer
  • There is a group of turkeys on a farm, and the farmer comes to feed them every day at eleven o'clock. One turkey scientist observes this phenomenon and sees no exceptions for nearly a year, so it discovers a great law in its universe: "Every day at eleven o'clock, food descends." It announces this law to the turkeys on Thanksgiving morning, but that morning at eleven o'clock, no food arrives, and the farmer comes in and sends them all to the dinner table.
• The Ants and the Marksman
  • There is a group of ants living on a target plane. One day, a scientist among the ants observes and announces that he has discovered a great law: "Every ten centimeters in the universe, there must be a hole." However, this is merely the result of the marksman's random act.
  • They interpret this marksman's spontaneous behavior as an iron law in their universe.

Of course, these two examples are quite extreme, but they effectively illustrate the idea that perfect cognition does not necessarily lead to optimal solutions. So what reasons might lead to deviations in the feedback we receive?

• The probability of feedback
  • The premise and conclusion do not have an entailment relationship; that is, one cannot necessarily derive a true conclusion from the premise, only possibly.
  • A correct choice does not necessarily lead to a good outcome, and an incorrect choice does not necessarily lead to a bad outcome, which will be introduced along with the next characteristic.
• Incompleteness of feedback
  • Feedback can only reflect a part; for example, many mothers talk about educating their children, hitting them, and if they stop crying and become obedient, then it’s useful. However, it can cause physical and psychological harm to the child.
• The obscurity of feedback
  • Feedback may be invisible; for instance, the negotiated price could potentially go lower, but you don’t know.
• Ambiguity of feedback
  • For example, if a blind date fails, you may never know the reason.
• Lack of feedback
  • Incompetent managers may find it difficult to speak up about employees' poor performance, making it hard to provide correct feedback.
• Partiality of feedback
  • The speaker may not perform well, but the audience, out of politeness, does not expose it and instead says it was good.

In addition to the biases in external feedback from others, we also have many bad habits when receiving feedback:

• Focusing on positive feedback and finding it hard to accept negative feedback.
  • I often tell my dad to smoke less, and he says, "Look, leaders smoke every day and are fine."
• People have a tendency for self-fulfilling prophecies.
  • Pygmalion Effect. When telling the homeroom teacher that a child is specially selected and has a bright future, in reality, they were not specifically chosen, but the results indeed show that this group of children performs better.
    • Therefore, educational psychology hopes everyone looks forward to children doing well; similarly, in life, believing "I can" is much stronger than "I can't, so forget it."
• Hindsight bias
  • "I said long ago that xxx wouldn't work; I was right."
• Seeking feedback that aligns with self-image
  • Absorbing feedback that matches self-image and rejecting anything that doesn’t, believing it’s incorrect.
    • Disregarding others' words.
• Possibly misremembering feedback content.
  • An experiment found that participants adjusted their memory content based on their level of self-esteem.
  • The self-esteem assessment feedback form filled out by testers was slightly modified and sent back to them two weeks later, and after reading it, participants were asked to recall it.
  • It was found that those with high self-esteem remembered the modified, more positive content, while those with low self-esteem remembered the modified, more negative content.

After reading these two parts, I realized that it is really difficult to listen to a sentence properly. It’s not that as we age and gain enough feedback and experience, we can more easily understand ourselves. There is knowledge in this.

Illusion of Uniqueness#

This is easy to understand; we often feel that we are unique. Of course, everyone is born different, but if you naturally feel that you are better than the vast majority of people in certain aspects, you are likely falling into the trap of the illusion of uniqueness.

This illusion of uniqueness stems from three aspects:

• Controllability - Misconceptions brought by controllability
  • If people believe that a certain trait is controllable, they are more likely to think they are superior to those around them regarding that trait.
    • For example, we tend to believe we are far more cooperative, polite, and self-disciplined than those around us (because these traits are controllable).
      • Here’s a case: in driving, previous research showed that 80% of drivers believe they are in the top half of drivers, while in reality, 30% of them overestimate themselves; they just don’t realize it.
    • However, when it comes to relatively uncontrollable traits, they do not feel the same level of superiority.
      • Regarding the earlier question about assessing one's athletic ability, most people do not overestimate themselves because, in most cases, it’s not just about wanting to run faster to achieve world champion levels; most of these are clearly defined standards.
• Ambiguity - Self-centered subconscious thinking
  • In the absence of clear definitions, people tend to overestimate their performance.
  • They only assess their strengths and weaknesses without evaluating others' strengths and weaknesses.
    • This often occurs in job competitions; if they win, it’s due to their strong abilities, but if they lose, it’s due to industry blackmail or political struggles. The essence may simply be that they do not have the obvious advantages of others.
      • In management, it is also necessary to clarify rules to a certain extent; laissez-faire may lead to internal friction.
      • This could be a significant source of conflict between people, and being aware of such performance is important.
• Observability - Self-serving judgments due to lack of observability
  • The harder behaviors are to observe, the more likely we are to make self-serving judgments. We can easily assess how fast someone runs, so we generally do not overestimate ourselves, but due to the unobservable nature of internal personal traits, we often fall into the trap of ignorance about others (not knowing how others are).

Illusion of Moral Superiority#

• Overestimating oneself while accurately evaluating others (the observer is confused)
  • This situation is most evident in moral aspects.
  • In a moral survey conducted on Williams, 80% of students stated they would refuse to plagiarize others' exam answers, while they believed only 56% of other students would also refuse to plagiarize.
• Reasons
  • Moral behavior is more desirable. We all aspire to be moral individuals.
  • Moral behavior is controllable.
  • The ambiguity of moral behavior standards.
• Impact
  • On attribution: Overly condemning those whose character has been tested.
  • On individuals: Claiming to be virtuous can lead to political and noble actions.
    • After making a commitment, they are more likely to fulfill expectations.
      • In a simulated phone interview with residents of Bloomington, Indiana, 48% of respondents expressed willingness to contribute three hours of time for cancer association fundraising; in a real interview, only 4% agreed; however, three days later, when the experimental group contacted those who had previously received calls to predict their behavior, 31% agreed when it was a real request.

After discussing these several angles, we have some understanding. So how can we view this world more objectively?

How to View the World More Objectively#

• Learn to perceive situational contexts.
  • Climbing Mount Everest is not just a matter of gritting your teeth and going up. The actual situation is very difficult.
  • Immerse yourself in real scenarios, prepare adequately, and fully understand the actual situation.
  • Refer to others' data.
    • Refer to historical data; learning from history can inform future actions.
• Fight against emotions.
  • If you come home and find a crocodile in the bathtub, many people might feel a bit surprised, but nothing more. However, if you actually encounter it, you might be so scared that you can't speak.
  • We tend to underestimate short-term emotional impacts while overestimating the long-term effects of emotions. The shock from a divorce may be immense in the first half month, but a year later, it is fully accepted.

We need to regularly engage in cognitive corrections: After drawing conclusions, listen to differing opinions in the opposite direction. When you decide to do something, always ask people around you until you hear opposing views before making a decision.

What Changes Have Occurred in Myself#

• The negative traits brought by evolution must have their rationality; for example, ancestors who were too objective and lacked confidence may not have found partners.
  • The benefits of confidence:
    • Optimism
    • Easier to achieve success
    • Easier to overcome adversity
  • Confidence is certainly better than inferiority.
• Understanding oneself and others more objectively.
  • Do not expect everyone to understand each other, and also accept the fact that not everyone will understand you.
  • Here, I want to introduce my own understanding of the Multidimensional Tunnel Theory.
    • Initially, I thought people only had two channels, one good and one bad, but later I discovered that these two channels do not exist. Instead, there are countless parallel tunnels of hot reviews that occasionally intersect, transforming and influencing each other without affecting one another. They do not understand each other, and they are all exploring the world at the cross-section of these words, but this does not affect their existence or their ways of knowing and understanding the world. This is each one of us.
• Rational objectivity is a luxury, but never give up the pursuit of it.
• Firmly believe in lifelong learning.
  • When people view their own problems, they are not entirely inaccurate. Higher cognitive levels lead to more accurate judgment.
  • I do not want to fall into a vicious cycle, becoming the person who says, "I don’t understand, but xxx" when I am old.
  • The more I know, the more I realize what I don’t know, but the less I know about what I don’t know.
• Give myself positive psychological suggestions.
  • Organizing a book club, and since there’s no one around, I am the most suitable candidate, haha.
    • I hope to gather many friends interested in reading, to read and share with each other, and to make progress together. Once there are enough people, we can also hold offline book clubs and movie activities.
• Collect everyone's participation in advance for events. Just like that phone experiment, those who have made commitments are often more likely to keep their promises.

Conclusion#

Knowing yourself and not overdoing things is a matter of great importance; not overestimating oneself and not underestimating oneself is actually a very challenging task.

This book introduces the terrifying fact that we have cognitive biases in understanding ourselves, but it also brings us reflections on life and intellectual inspiration. This complex topic cannot be changed by just one book, but starting to become aware of it is a good thing.

Knowing oneself is an eternal topic in human civilization, and I am also very grateful that humanity possesses this ability for self-examination, which allows us to maintain the right direction in the pursuit of truth.

Finally, I hope everyone can continuously express their new insights on this eternal topic. Thank you all for watching, and I hope the content shared can bring everyone some gains, haha.